After an overnight session on 472kHz - no new spots or spotters seen, just the usual ones - it was back to 10m this morning with 3 early Es spots by CT1JTQ (1843km). I am suspicious of the spots by PD0OHW (459km). These may be tropo or even MS as there are lots of short, strong bursts on his frequency this morning. For Es, the skip would have to be very short and tropo/aircraft/MS might be more probable over this sort of range. I see I have just spotted him at 0924z.
Sunspot count today is 80 and 20-30MHz propagation "normal". F2 has been reported in Portugal, but no evidence here as yet. Conditions on 10m are likely to be "interesting". Basically, it is anyone's guess. There is always the chance of F2 linking with Es, in which case some real DX is possible.