They are going

 This came from a local friend yesterday.

"Your crystal ball is working well. I rang the telephone number on the Waters & Stanton website and was told by Mr Fortune that Nevada Radio and Waters & Stanton had now combined and were trading under the Moonraker name and from the same W&S place near Woburn Sands."

I think we could all read the runes. In the future we can expect fewer dealers and fewer ads in magazines and probably fewer mags or smaller mags.  

In the last 20 years look at what has happened to radio mags on sale!

No adverts?

After the news of some UK dealers merging, I checked RadCom and PW for dealer adverts.  MLS have many pages whereas Nevada had none in RadCom. Also, Waters and Stanton had none in RadCom.

They all had ads in PW. Moonraker was advertising in RadCom. I presume the costs are lower in PW?

Which dealers will be around in 2030?

Caveat Emptor.  Buyer beware!

Are they joking?

On the back of the latest RadCom is an advert by a UK dealer for a certain brand of antennas. Now I have no doubt these will be good.  

Then I saw the prices!!! 

Someone is making loads of money out of stuckers. Probably the dealer and manufacturer are both making handsome profits. I shall not embarrass them by adding names, but remind all this is just a hobby. 

I am all for dealers and manufacturers charging fair prices and making fair profits, but do not exploit your customers please.

Are we being ripped off? I stand to be corrected. Perhaps the dealers and manufacturer would care to let us know the profits? Perhaps they would rather not. 

This same dealer recently announced it was the sole UK dealer of a German radio that retails at over £12k!! Again, big fat profits come to mind. I would be surprised if the components cost more than £200. OK, they have to recover development and selling costs, but that still leaves a huge profit for the dealer and manufacturer. Once again, if I am wrong I shall happily retract how I "sense".

They sell at high prices as people are prepared to buy at these high prices.  Now, each to their own and spend your money as you want. 

Dealer profits

For a long time I have thought dealers aimed to make excessive profits. We all know that they have costs such as wages, premises etc.

Maybe I am being unfair? 

I am all for fair profits (after all, this is their business), but I object to excessive profits. In my opinion many dealers and magazines will go out of business in the coming years as most amateurs get old and buy fewer radios. Magazines will suffer as there will be fewer dealers and less revenue.

Maybe the strategy is to make as much money as possible whilst they can? 

UK dealers

This afternoon, I rang the main UK suppliers requesting the best price with free delivery for cash on a major amateur transceiver. I get the feeling they are being muzzled. Even with no trade-ins, no finance and upfront cash they do not seem to understand. More fool them for a sale lost. I can wait.

Why do UK amateur radio dealers remind me of insurance companies, who don't understand the value of loyal customers? It really infuriates me when premiums go up each year even though it is years and years since I last made a claim. You would think they would want to keep loyal customers. No, they depend on mugs being too lazy and just paying up. Personally, I think insurance companies are immoral sharks.

Which dealers will survive?

Sorry if I sound like the grim reaper!

There is little doubt that many (most?) radio amateurs are getting old. Yes, there are younger people entering the hobby, but the vast majority are old men. This means several things.

1. We need to attract and keep younger people.
2. There will be fewer radio magazines. Even now, you have to look hard to find any in newsagents, whereas computer and gaming mags are breeding.
3. Those mags that survive are likely to be thinner with fewer adverts.
4. There will be fewer dealers.
5. Most new products will be made in China (even if designed in the USA or Japan).
6. There will be fewer manufacturers making amateur radio products.
7. There will be fewer new products.

This is my forecast (I very much hope I am wrong):

1. At least one major manufacturer will leave the amateur radio market or go bust.
2. There will be half the number of radio amateurs on the planet in 20 years.

In the same way that high street shops need to re-invent themselves or go under, so our hobby has to change. The next 20 years are crisis times for a great many institutions such as shops, churches and, of course, amateur radio.

It would not surprise me if many authorities just allowed all users to use any VLF, LF, MF, HF and VHF frequencies without a licence on a strictly "non-interference" basis, perhaps with a low power limit. If you were OFCOM or the FCC this would make life easy. It is called deregulation. In other words, copping out.  Radio amateurs that remain can sort themselves out!

Waters and Stanton

My friend Steve G1KQH has sent me this:

http://blog.hamradiostore.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/IHSG.pdf

Is this the end for W&S as we know it, or a new beginning? I hope a new beginning, as they have been fair to me in the past.

In my view many UK, mainland European and US amateur radio dealers will be looking for ways to streamline their businesses and reduce costs. The alternative is closing down. Dealers in the amateur market have seen better times.

We can expect many well known names to disappear in the years ahead as the amateur radio hobby evolves, active amateurs get older and maybe buy less. One thing is certain. That is we can expect the amateur radio hobby to be very different in the years ahead.

I have said this before, but expect fewer and smaller radio magazines, fewer adverts, fewer suppliers, fewer kits and fewer dealers.

Have you counted the number of radio magazines on the newsagents stands recently compared with mags on other subjects? 30 years ago there were several magazines about amateur radio, but these days they are rare.

AES closes

A large USA dealer has closed according to a message from Steve G1KQH. As I have said many times, we are (in the main) an ageing population of radio amateurs and it is quite likely other dealers will close within the next few years. I fear for some UK dealers and some magazines. Unless more young people are attracted, the dealers will go, the magazines will get less revenue from adverts and the magazines will shrink and go too.

What attracted many of my generation into the hobby does not hold true today. To young people today video messaging around the world is commonplace. Young people get "turned on" by different things.

Our hobby will be very different in 20 years.

Cynic - me?

As I grow older I think I am becoming a "grumpy old man" and a cynic.

This morning I see my email has yet another "something for the weekend" offer from one of the major UK amateur dealers with Yaesu mobiles at discounted prices. Now, these may be "lost leaders" to encourage us to buy other items. The cynic in me says two things. Firstly, are these items that are over-stocked or not selling well, possibly because there are lower cost Chinese radios around? Secondly, are these items over-priced anyway? Either way, I am not persuaded to buy.

Now, dealers have a tough job. They, rightly, have to make a profit. They have to cope with exchange rates that vary. But, are they taking us all as suckers? I am all for fair and reasonable margins, but please don't exploit us all. We are customers. We want you to remain in business for years to come but offer us fair prices! If you do, we will remain loyal customers. If you take us for a ride we will look elsewhere.

Bargains - really?

Many of the larger dealers are offering special deals in the lead up to Christmas. But, are you really getting a bargain? For example, MLS have the FT1200 at less than £1000 after cash back. Maybe this radio is over-stocked as people prefer the IC7300 or the FT991?

Call me a cynic, but I think we are being offered discounts on radios that have not sold. As they say, "beware of Greeks bearing gifts". If something looks too good there is probably a catch. Of course, if you really want one of the discounted rigs then now is as good a time to buy as any.

See www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/beware-of-greeks-bearing-gifts.html .

Japanese goods should be cheaper!

The exchange rate (Sterling to Yen) has improved enormously in the last few years and was around 195 Yen to the UK Pound in recent days. Not long ago (2 years ago?) it was less than 130 Yen to the Pound. In real terms Japanese radios should be hugely less expensive based on the exchange rate alone becoming so much more favorable. These are not marginal changes they are huge.

Don't feel too sorry for the dealers. After all, they have to put fuel in their cars. If they struggled a few years ago they are not struggling any more! No, we the consumers are seen as easy fodder, to be milked. The dealers make big profits from early adopters who must have that shiny new radio whatever the cost. Once their greed has been satisfied, the price will drop to attract the rest of us.  I predict the Yaesu FT991 will soon drop in price. Just how much will depend on how much of the exchange rate change the dealers are prepared to pass on to us. One thing is certain, the UK dealers are doing well at the moment.

The FT817 is another story. All development costs were recovered in the first few years. As for LCD and other "supply issues" I just do not believe it. These radios have sold well worldwide for about 15 years and Yaesu has the buying power on anything. No, the true story is someone is making huge profits on this radio, and we the buying public are being taken for a ride.

When the Chinese take the amateur market seriously the Japanese suppliers and their dealers will have a rude awakening.