Winter, late afternoon - NOT amateur radio

 

This delightful photo was taken by our sons a few days ago. It shows the setting sun and one of our granddaughters.

Sunny, frosty day - NOT amateur radio

We have a nice, crisp and sunny day at the moment. Let's hope it is sunny all day.

Winter sun - NOT amateur radio

On Christmas day we went for a walk around the village. The churchyard looks bare in winter.

Although there were a few snowdrops about to come out, there were no daffodils.

Winter sun - NOT amateur radio

As we often do and as the sun was shining, we went for a walk at Anglesey Abbey.

As the photo shows, a lovely winter day. Cold and a bit windy, but great.

Solar Cycle 25 predictions

This is getting more like BREXIT everyday with major disagreements amongst the "experts".

They all seem to agree that the size of the next solar peak will be similar to the last one, but there are major disagreements about the depth and length of the preceding minimum.

See https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle

Solar data

Early every month I take a look at the latest solar data. As yet, my source has not been updated with the summary for September.

We are approaching the next solar minimum so we can expect long periods when the sun will be spotless. This could well go on into 2021. The next minimum will probably be 2020. I also keep a watchful eye on predictions for cycle 25. The last forecast was expecting cycle 25 to be similar to cycle 24.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/

UPDATE 1552z: The data for September is now there. At the moment, the forecast is that we are already very close to the solar minimum. The next few months will give us a better idea. One of the graphs shows us already at solar minimum. Let's hope this is right.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/images/cycles23_24.png

July solar data

This is now available and shows how quiet the sun was last month with low sunspot numbers and low flux.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/

Sunspots - Monday July 9th 2018

Solar flux is 72 today and the SSN remains zero.  A=4 and K=1 .

KV5R site

Funny how you find new sites all the time. This one may be good for USA visitors in particular. It has some useful data on propagation.

See kv5r.com

June solar data available

The data for June is already available. Unsurprisingly, it shows sunspot numbers up on the previous month. Don't be fooled. The most probable trajectory is a further slow decline to the next minimum probably next year or the year after.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/

Interesting that this site thinks the solar minimum could be this year. We will see in another few years. I quote:

While smaller spots with the correct polarity alignment of cycle 25 regions have been observed at high latitude locations as early as 2016, this overview will only include spots large enough to have been visible at a 1K resolution. In the case of reversed polarity cycle 24 regions, those that are not at a sufficiently high latitude (ie. 30 degrees or more), are considered most likely to belong to cycle 24 and will not be included in this list until closer to the actual solar cycle minimum (likely to be sometime between April and December 2018).

2 years to next minimum

Recent relatively high sunspot numbers may lead hopeful souls to think cycle 24 has ended and we are starting cycle 25. Sorry to be the bringer of bad news, but it looks like we have another 2 years until the next minimum according to http://www.solen.info/solar/. It looks like the recent improvement is temporary.  No, I think 2019 and 2020 will pass before we see any real signs of things getting better. All the forecasts suggest cycle 25 will be quite poor.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png .

Yesterday - NOT amateur radio

This is a collage of yesterday. We had something quite rare - sunshine!

Solar data for March now available

The solar data now includes March. It has just been released.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/

March 2018 solar data awaited

A few days into the month, I usually get the solar data for the last month. It is only the first of the month, so this data is not yet available. In February, there was a very slight improvement although the average is that we are still on the way down to the next solar minimum.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/

Solar data for February

Data for February is now available.

Although we are on the long fall to the next solar minimum, there was a small rise in solar activity last month. This is a blip on the slow decline, but serves to remind us that there are good days as well as bad days. Even now there are days with real DX on 10m.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .

The slow march downwards

The latest solar figures have been published showing a steady decline in solar activity. We can expect a quiet period now for several years.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/

Latest Solar Conditions

The latest solar numbers are out and these show the slow fall in solar activity as we run down to the next minimum. Solar conditions, on average, will fall for another couple of years. The next peak may be very poor. This is not certain, but the most optimistic forecast I have seen shows a peak like the last one a few years ago.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .

Solar conditions

Gradually, the sun is going to sleep. Sunspot numbers and solar flux are declining and this will be the case until around 2019. Of course, these are averages and sometimes conditions are much better. The forecasts for the next sunspot maximum are not great. The best I've seen is a peak about the size of the last maximum. It could be much worse!

See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .

Slowly declining solar conditions

September was a bit of a surprise, with quite respectable solar flux and sunspots. Nonetheless, on average we are still very much on the downside of the solar cycle with some years before we hit the bottom.

It is some time since I last checked the predictions for the next peak, but they were disappointing, so we may not see much of a peak. Always remember these are averages and the odd day may be much better. The trouble is many desert the higher bands assuming they are no good, so DX gets missed.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .
See also http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html.

Hot and sunny - NOT amateur radio

Something unusual has appeared in the UK skies. I think it is called "the sun". 😊

Actually it has been hot now for several days. Today we even had breakfast in the garden. For us in the UK this is a rare treat. Summer time, the temperature is often pleasantly warm at 18-22 deg C, but it has been HOT in recent days. Even sitting in the shade at breakfast felt warm and comfortable.

This robin (see photo) preferred the fat balls to the mealworms (eventually).